Irving John Good? Arthur C. Clarke? Philip J. Davis? Reuben Hersh? Vernor Vinge? Raymond Kurzweil? Apocryphal?

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Dear Quote Investigator: A influential computer researcher in the 1950s or 1960s predicted that humankind would produce a superintelligent machine at some time during the twentieth century. The researcher thought that this machine would be humanity’s last development. Would you please tell me the name of this person and help me to find a citation?

Quote Investigator: In 1965 mathematician, cryptographer, and computer system researcher Irving John Good published a speculative post titled “Concerning the First Ultraintelligent Machine” in the journal “Advances in Computers”. Boldface added to excerpts by QI: 1

Let an ultraintelligent machine be characterized as a device that can far surpass all the intellectual tasks of any man however clever before. Due to the fact that the style of makers is just one of these intellectual activities, an ultraintelligent machine can design also much better machines; there would certainly then unquestionably be an “intelligence explosion,” and the intelligence of male would be left much behind.

You are watching: There are two possibilities in the universe

Based on this extrapolation of ascending computer system capabilities Good presented the complying with conclusion via an ominous proviso:

Thus the initially ultraintelligent machine is the last invention that man need ever make, provided that the machine is docile sufficient to tell us how to save it under manage.

Below are added schosen citations in chronological order.

Continue reading The First Ultraintelligent Machine Is the Last Invention That Humanity Need Ever Make


Notes:


Posted on January 4, 2022Categories Arthur C. Clarke, Irving John Good, Raymond Kurzweil, Vernor VingeTags Arthur C. Clarke, Irving John Good, Philip J. Davis, Ray Kurzweil, Reuben Hersh, Vernor Vinge

Extrasimple Clintends Require Extrasimple Evidence


Carl Sagan? Marcello Truzzi? Pierre-Simon Laplace? David Hume? Benjamin Bayly? Elihu Palmer? William Craig Brownlee? F. B. Barton? William Denton? Ely Vaughan Zollars? Joseph Rinn? James Oberg? Arthur C. Clarke?

Dear Quote Investigator: Tabloid newsrecords have published exceptional claims around alien abductions, mischievous ghosts, bigfoot sightings, and also other anomalies. Skeptics have countered these reports by stating that the evidence is poor. Here are 2 versions of a pertinent adage:

Extrasimple claims call for extraplain proof.Extrasimple clintends require extraplain proof.

This saying has been attributed to astronomer Carl Sagan, sociologist Marcello Truzzi, and mathematician Pierre-Simon Laarea. Would you please discover this topic?

Quote Investigator: These sayings form a herbal family although the vocabulary and also phrasing varies. The following overview through dates reflects the evolution:

1708: These matters being exceptionally extraplain, will require a really extraordinary proof (Benjamin Bayly)

1738: As it is a issue of an extraplain kind, it is but reasonable in us to call for extraplain evidence for it

1740: Every male has a best to demand also extraplain proof for any type of extraordinary truth (Arthur Ashley Sykes)

1741: Assertions so contrary to reality … need some extraplain proof to obtain our credit and assent (John Straight)

1748: A wise man, therefore, proportions his idea to the proof (David Hume)

1748: No testimony is adequate to develop a miracle, unmuch less the testimony be of such a type, that its falsehood would be more miraculous, than the truth, which it endeavours to develop (David Hume)

1800: Miracles being extremely unusual and extraplain facts, they require exceptionally strong evidence to assistance them (Beilby Porteus)

1804: I ought to have actually extrasimple evidence, to induce me to believe extraordinary points (Elihu Palmer)

1810: Plus un fait est extraordinaire, plus il a besoin d’être appuyé de fortes preuves (Pierre-Simon Laplace)

1810: The even more extraplain a reality, the even more it requirements to be supported by strong proofs (Translation of Pierre-Simon Laplace)

1824: Extrasimple clintends deserve to remainder only on extrasimple proofs (William Craig Brownlee)

1826: For extraordinary facts, we need to have extrasimple evidence

1852: Extrasimple clintends must be backed by extraplain proof

1854: An extrasimple, an unherbal occasion, requirements extrasimple evidence (F. B. Barton)

1871: Extraordinary proof is required to establish extraplain facts (William Denton)

1895: Extraplain claims always speak to for extraordinary proof (Ely Vaughn Zollars)

1906: Wonderful sensations need wonderful evidence in their assistance (Joseph F. Rinn)

1975: Extrasimple clintends require extraordinary proof (Marcello Truzzi)

1976: Extrasimple proof is necessary for extrasimple clintends (Kendrick Frazier credited Marcello Truzzi)

1977: Extrasimple clintends need extrasimple proof (Carl Sagan)

1979: Extrasimple clintends demand also extraplain proof. (James Oberg)

Below are selected citations in chronological order.

Continue reading Extrasimple Claims Require Extraordinary Evidence


Posted on December 5, 2021December 9, 2021Categories Arthur C. Clarke, Carl Sagan, David Hume, Pierre-Simon LaplaceTags Arthur C. Clarke, Benjamin Bayly, Carl Sagan, David Hume, Elihu Palmer, Ely Vaughan Zollars, F. B. Barton, James Oberg, Joseph Rinn, Marcello Truzzi, Pierre-Simon Laarea, William Craig Brownlee, William Denton

Sometimes I Think We’re Alone, and also Sometimes I Think We’re Not. In Either Case, the Idea Is Quite Staggering


Arthur C. Clarke? Stanley Kubrick? Christiane Kubrick? Jeremy Bernstein? Porky Pine? Walt Kelly? Frank Interlandi? Carl Sagan? Jerome Agel? Buckminster Fuller? David Shepley? Lee Alvin DuBridge? Anonymous?

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Quote Investigator: Astronomers have been in search of proof of extraterrestrial knowledge for even more than a century. Is mankind alone in the universe, or is humankind sharing the cosmos through unfound alien civilizations?

A scientist or a scientific research fiction (SF) writer when replied to this question by saying somepoint like: Either answer is mindboggling. Would you please check out this topic?

Dear Quote Investigator: This idea has actually been expressed in many kind of different means. Here is a sampling in chronological order:

1966 November: Sometimes I think we’re alone, and occasionally I think we’re not. In either case, the principle is quite staggering.

1966 December: You either believe tright here are other creates of intelligent life in the universe, or that tbelow aren’t. Either way, it’s a pretty staggering thought.

1974: Sometimes I think we’re alone in the Universe, and periodically I think we’re not. In either situation, the prospect is incredibly frightening.

1977: Either mansort is alone in the galaxy — or he is not; either alternative is mind-boggling.

1989: Sometimes I think we are alone in the universe and also sometimes I think we aren’t; in both instances the idea provides me dizzy.

1990: Either we are alone in the cosmos, or we are not. Either means, the believed is frightening.

1996: Two possibilities exist: either we are alone in the world or we are not. Both are equally terrifying.

2000: Either there is life out tbelow or we are the only living points in the universe, and also either different is equally astonishing.

The earliest close complement situated by QI showed up within an write-up by physicist Jeremy Bernstein around movie director Stanley Kubrick publiburned in “The New Yorker” magazine in 1966. Kubrick was functioning along with British SF author Arthur C. Clarke who wrote a short story titled “The Sentinel”. The pair invested two years expanding the story right into a novel and also a script for the film “2001: A Space Odyssey” which included an interplanetary voyage to Jupiter. Boldface included to excerpts by QI: 1

Extraterrestrial life may seem an odd topic for a activity picture, however at this phase in his career Kubrick is convinced that any concept he is really interested in, but unmost likely it may sound, have the right to be moved to film. “One of the English science-fiction authors when sassist, ‘Sometimes I think we’re alone, and occasionally I think we’re not. In either situation, the concept is fairly staggering,’” Kubrick once told me. “I should say I agree via him.”

Kubrick did not specifically determine the author of the quotation. Clarke was discussed generally in the article; however, QI believes that Kubrick and Bernstein would have credited Clarke if he had crafted the statement. Kubrick spoke to other British SF authors such as J. G. Ballard and Michael Moorcock in the time of the long difficult parturition of “2001”. 2

Oddly, a pair years later on in 1968 Kubrick tentatively attributed the renote to a “influential astronomer”. See the 1968 citation better listed below. Kubrick did stop to U.S. astronomer Carl Sagan during the development of the “2001”. 3

Here are extra schosen citations in chronological order.

Continue analysis Sometimes I Think We’re Alone, and Sometimes I Think We’re Not. In Either Case, the Idea Is Quite Staggering


Posted on October 22, 2020October 7, 2021Categories Arthur C. Clarke, Buckminster FullerTags Arthur C. Clarke, Buckminster Fuller, Christiane Kubrick, David Shepley, Frank Interlandi, Jeremy Bernstein, Jerome Agel, Lee Alvin DuBridge, Stanley Kubrick

We Can Never Run Out of Energy or Matter. But We Can All Too Easily Run Out of Brains


Arthur C. Clarke? Gerard K. O’Neill? Apocryphal

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Dear Quote Investigator: The famed science fiction writer Arthur C. Clarke was optimistic concerning the capability of humale ingenuity to transcfinish existing restrictions. He thought that future modern technologies would get rid of raw product shortages. The just constraint he feared was a absence of engaged humale brains. Would you please aid me to uncover a citation?

Quote Investigator: Arthur C. Clarke’s 1962 arsenal of esclaims titled “Profiles of the Future” presented bold predictions about future capabilities. For example, he argued that “translating machines” would be accessible by 1970. 1 Yet, the study prototypes constructed throughout the 1970s were sevecount restricted and flawed. Nonetheless, Clarke’s underlying optimism has been justified. Machine translation now is still imperfect, however it is an important tool that is employed by millions online eextremely day.

Also, in 1962 Clarke described a broad variety of speculative principles consisting of methods for obtaining power from the sunlight and also raw materials from the sea and also asteroids. 2 He said that “space mining” would certainly be feasible by 2030. 3 His forward-looking technique helps to describe his exuberance: 4

This survey must be enough to indicate—though not to prove—that tright here require never before be any kind of permanent shortage of raw products.. . .In this inconceivably enormous universe, we deserve to never before run out of energy or issue. But we can all as well conveniently run out of brains.

Below are added selected citations in chronological order.

Continue reading We Can Never before Run Out of Energy or Matter. But We Can All Too Easily Run Out of Brains


Posted on November 19, 2019November 19, 2019Categories Arthur C. ClarkeTags Arthur C. Clarke, Gerard K. O"Neill

Time Is What Keeps Everypoint From Happening At Once


Albert Einstein? Ray Cummings? Mark Twain? Arthur C. Clarke? John Archibald Wheeler? Arthur Power Dudden? Susan Sontag?

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Dear Quote Investigator: Albert Einstein has got credit for a humorous remark around time:

The only reason for time is so that every little thing doesn’t take place at as soon as.

Would you please check out the provenance of this quip?

Quote Investigator: There is no substantive proof that Einstein wrote or spoke the statement above. It is noted within a section referred to as “Probably Not By Einstein” in the in-depth recommendation “The Ultimate Quotable Einstein” from Princeton College Press. 1

The earliest match recognized to QI appeared in 1919 within a story titled “The Girl in the Golden Atom” by Ray Cummings in the magazine “All-Story Weekly”: 2

“How would you define time?”The Big Company Man smiled. “Time,” he shelp, “is what keeps whatever from happening at once.”“Very clever before,” said the Chemist, laughing.

The text over is from the 1970 reprint collection “Under the Moons of Mars: A History and Anthology of ‘The Scientific Romance"”. QI has actually not yet confirmed the quotation by straight studying the 1919 problem of All-Story Weekly”.

Below are added schosen citations in chronological order.

Continue reading Time Is What Keeps Everything From Happening At Once


Posted on July 6, 2019July 24, 2019Categories Albert Einstein, Arthur C. Clarke, Mark Twain, Susan SontagTags Albert Einstein, Arthur C. Clarke, Arthur Power Dudden, John Archibald Wheeler, Mark Twain, Ray Cummings, Susan Sontag

It Has Yet To Be Proved That Intelligence Has Real Survival Value


Arthur C. Clarke? Paraphrase? Apocryphal?

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Dear Quote Investigator: The intelligence of humankind has allowed its absolute dominance of the biosphere; but, this trait has also created frightening existential threats such as the risk of nuclear warfare. Science fiction luminary Arthur C. Clarke has actually got crmodify for the following remark:

It has actually yet to be proved that intelligence has actually actual survival value.

Would you please assist me to discover a citation?

Quote Investigator: In 1972 Arthur C. Clarke published “The Lost Worlds of 2001” which included indevelopment about his cooperation through auteur Stanley Kubrick on the film “2001: A Void Odyssey”. Clarke began to compose a novel in 1964 to administer a backbone for the movie. The story was generally modified throughout the joint effort with Kubrick to construct a screenplay. Clarke released his last recomposed novel in 1968 which diverged from the early novel and from the screenplay.

“The Lost Worlds of 2001” had extensive excerpts from the formerly unpublished early novel. The extraterrestrial travellers in the beforehand novel developed pyramidal structures instead of the rectangular monoliths offered in the 1968 film. Throughout one scene the astronaut David Bowguy spoke through an anthropologist called Anna Brailsford about the beings that had actually arrived at the Earth and also Moon roughly 3 million years in the past: 1

Perhaps there’s a plateau for intelligence that can’t be gone beyond. They might already have reached it when they visited the Moon. After all, it has yet to be confirmed that knowledge has real survival worth.”

“I can’t accept that!” protested Bowguy. “Sudepend, our intelligence has made us what we are—the the majority of effective animals on the planet!”

Thus, the quotation was spoken by a fictional anthropologist character in a work-related by Clarke. In addition, the citation given listed below reveals Clarke’s attitude of fear and ambivalence towards intelligence in species.

Below are added schosen citations in chronological order.

Continue reading It Has Yet To Be Proved That Intelligence Has Real Survival Value


Posted on January 11, 2019April 18, 2020Categories Arthur C. ClarkeTags Arthur C. Clarke

People Tfinish To Overestimate What Can Be Done In One Year And To Underestimate What Can Be Done In Five Or Ten Years


Bill Gates? Arthur C. Clarke? J. C. R. Licklider? Roy Amara? Alfred Mayo? George H. Heilmeier? Manfred Kochen? Raymond Kurzweil? Anonymous?

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Dear Quote investigator: Predicting the technical future of mantype is enormously hard. One recurring flaw in such projections has actually been determined. Here are 3 versions:

We tfinish to overestimate the result of a modern technology in the short run and also underestimate the effect in the long run.

We always overestimate the readjust that will happen in the brief term and underestimate the adjust that will certainly take place in the lengthy term.

People overestimate what can be done in one year, and also underestimate what can be done in ten.

This notion has been attributed to software mogul Bill Gates, science fiction writer Arthur C. Clarke, visionary computer scientist J. C. R. Licklider, futurist Roy Amara and others.

Quote investigator: The statements over are not identical in meaning, yet grouping them together in a single family members provides understanding. The range of expressions makes the tracing task fairly tough, and this article simply presents a snapshot of current research.

Arthur C. Clarke did compose a partly corresponding statement in the 1951 book “The Exploration of Space”, however his suggest differed from the saying under evaluation. He did not sharply identify the brief run and also long run. Emphasis included to excerpts by QI: 1

Yet if we have learned one point from the background of development and discovery, it is that, in the lengthy run—and regularly in the short one—the a lot of daring prophecies seem laughably conservative.

This earliest enhance known to QI showed up in the 1965 book “Libraries of the Future” by J. C. R. Licklider. Computer memory modern technology was proceeding quickly as soon as the book was created, and also Licklider commented on the challenge of extrapolating trends: 2

Shortly after the message was composed, “bulk core” memories, with 18 million bits per unit, and also as many type of as 4 systems per computer system, were announced for delivery in 1966. A modern-day maxim says: “People tend to overestimate what have the right to be done in one year and to underestimate what deserve to be done in five or ten years.”

Licklider disasserted crmodify for the saying; for this reason, this at an early stage occurrence was anonymous although some colleagues later ascribed the renote to Licklider.

Below are extra selected citations in chronological order.

Continue analysis People Tfinish To Overestimate What Can Be Done In One Year And To Underestimate What Can Be Done In Five Or Ten Years


Posted on January 3, 2019January 16, 2019Categories Arthur C. Clarke, Bill GatesTags Alfred Mayo, Arthur C. Clarke, Bill Gates, George H. Heilmeier, J. C. R. Licklider, Manfred Kochen, Raymond Kurzweil, Roy Amara

The Universe Is Not Only Queerer Than We Suppose, But Queerer Than We Can Suppose


Arthur Eddington? J. B. S. Haldane? Werner Heisenberg? Arthur C. Clarke? Stanley Kubrick? J. B. Priestly

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Dear Quote Investigator: The physics of quantum mechanics, relativity theory, and string theory are mind-bending. Scientists have actually made impressive strides in the twentieth and twenty-first centuries; yet, some believe that the progression will certainly sheight before the completion of an all-inclusive physical concept. The adhering to adage says that the cosmos is beyond humale understanding. Here are 5 versions:

Reality is not only stranger than we intend, however stranger than we deserve to intend.Nature is not just odder than we think, but odder than we deserve to think.The cosmos is not just stranger than we imagine; it is stranger than we deserve to imagine.Not just is the cosmos stranger than we think, it is stranger than we have the right to think.The cosmos is not just queerer than we intend, however queerer than we deserve to mean.

Statements in this family members have actually been attributed to English astrophysicist Arthur Eddington, English biologist J. B. S. Haldane, and also Germale theoretical physicist Werner Heisenberg. Would you please check out this topic?

Quote Investigator: The earliest enhance in this household of expressions well-known to QI was written by J. B. S. Haldane in an essay titled “Possible Worlds” published within a 1927 collection. Emphasis included to excerpts by QI: 1

Now, my very own suspicion is that the cosmos is not only queerer than we expect, yet queerer than we have the right to suppose. I have actually read and also heard many type of attempts at a organized account of it, from materialism and also theosophy to the Christian mechanism or that of Kant, and also I have constantly felt that they were a lot too easy. I suspect that tbelow are even more points in heaven and also earth than are dreamed of, or can be dreamed of, in any kind of ideology.

Throughout the taking place decades the phrasing and also vocabulary of the statement have been changed to yield many type of variants. In enhancement, the attribution has actually shifted. Based on present evidence the ascriptions to Arthur Eddington and also Werner Heisenberg are unsupported.

Below are additional selected citations in chronological order.

Continue reading The Universe Is Not Only Queerer Than We Suppose, But Queerer Than We Can Suppose


Posted on December 25, 2018December 26, 2018Categories Arthur C. Clarke, J.B.S. HaldaneTags Arthur C. Clarke, Arthur Eddington, J.B. Priestly, J.B.S. Haldane, Stanley Kubrick, Werner Heisenberg

When a Distinguiburned But Elderly Scientist States that Somepoint Is Possible, He Is Almost Undoubtedly Right . . .


Arthur C. Clarke? Isaac Asimov? Apocryphal?

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Dear Quote Investigator: The well known science fiction author Arthur C. Clarke believed that proclamations of imopportunity were as well easily dispensed by blinkered elderly researchers. Would you please help me to find a citation for Clarke’s First Law?

Quote Investigator: In 1962 Arthur C. Clarke publiburned a forward-looking book filled with predictions titled “Profiles of the Future”. The second chapter debated the faiattract of imagination that result in some deeply flawed prognostications. Emphasis added to excerpts by QI: 1

Too excellent a burden of expertise can clog the wheels of imagination; I have actually tried to embody this truth of observation in Clarke’s Law, which may be formulated as follows:

When a distinguimelted yet elderly scientist states that somepoint is feasible, he is practically definitely best. When he says that somepoint is impossible, he is very more than likely wrong.

Clarke further suggested that in the domains of physics, math, and also astronautics elderly meant over the age of thirty. In various other locations of science the label of elderly might postponed into the forties. Clarke additionally admitted that there were glorious exceptions to his quite harsh ageism.

Continue analysis When a Distinguished But Elderly Scientist States that Something Is Possible, He Is Althe majority of Without a doubt Right . . .


Posted on November 28, 2018November 29, 2018Categories Arthur C. Clarke, Isaac NewtonTags Arthur C. Clarke, Isaac Asimov

The Goal of the Future Is Full Unemployment, So We Can Play


Arthur C. Clarke? Gene Youngblood? Apocryphal?

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Dear Quote Investigator: While analysis around the economic idea of a universal standard earnings I came across a statement attributed to the farsighted science fiction writer Arthur C. Clarke advocating the goal of “complete unemployment” instead of “complete employment”. Clarke felt that the computer systems and robots of the future would percreate program occupational and drudgery, so we would certainly have more time to play. Would you please assist me to uncover a citation?

Quote Investigator: Arthur C. Clarke co-authored the screenplay of “2001: A Gap Odyssey” which was released in 1968. In April 1969 a prolonged interview with Clarke carried out by Gene Youngblood appeared in the “Los Angeles Free Press”, an different newspaper.

During the conversation Clarke and Youngblood discussed the benefits mankind might have the ability to obtain from the advancement of progressed computer system systems able to perform countless work better and also more easily than human being. Yet, the HAL 9000 computer system in the movie “2001” was frightening, and also Youngblood asked why an adverse vision was highlighted. Emphasis included to excerpts by QI: 1

GENE: But you see the average perkid doesn’t see it. All he sees is that he’s going to be reput by a computer, reduced to an IBM card and filed amethod.

CLARKE: The goal of the future is full joblessness, so we can play. That’s why we have to destroy the current politico-financial system.

GENE: Precisely. Now, we feel that if just this idea had actually come across in “2001,” instead of portraying devices as ominous and devastating. . .

CLARKE: But it would have been an additional film. Be thankful for what you’ve gained. Maybe Stanley wasn’t interested in making that sort of film.

See more: Physical Design Becomes Simpler When Data Is Distributed At Different Locations.

Below are additional selected citations in chronological order.

Continue reading The Goal of the Future Is Full Unemployment, So We Can Play


Posted on November 11, 2018November 12, 2018Categories Arthur C. ClarkeTags Arthur C. Clarke, Gene Youngblood, Jerome Agel

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