From what I review below https://onlinecourses.scientific research.psu.edu/stat510/node/47, tright here is no seasonality as the information are annual information.

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"Is tbelow seasonality, interpretation that there is a routinely repeating pattern of highs and also lows concerned calendar time such as periods, quarters, months, days of the week, and so on."

But for example if I have a time series for rain via information in years, and also the information show a pattern that is repeated in the very same months throughout the year, this is not seasonal because the period is in years?

How do you recognize if it"s seasonality or period cycle?

Look the example below

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Look what they sassist for the housing sales series

"The monthly housing sales (peak left) present strong seasonality within annually, as well as some strong cyclic behaviour with duration around 6–10 years. There is no evident trfinish in the data over this period."

But exactly how they recognize it is seasonality? I can check out nopoint.


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asked Sep 12 "16 at 1:03
user72621user72621
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The distinction between seasonal and also cyclical behavior hregarding carry out via just how continuous the duration of adjust is. A seasonal actions is extremely strictly consistent, meaning tright here is a specific amount of time in between the peaks and troughs of the data. For circumstances temperature would have a seasonal actions. The cearliest day of the year and the warmest day of the year might move (because of determinants other than time than affect the data) however you will never before see drift over time wright here ultimately winter comes in June in the north hemisphere.

Cyclical habits on the other hand deserve to drift over time because the moment between periods isn"t specific. For instance, the stock sector tends to cycle between durations of high and also low worths, but tbelow is no set amount of time between those fluctuations.

Series can display both cyclical and also seasonal habits. In the residence prices example over, tright here is a cyclical result as a result of the market, however tright here is also a seasonal impact because most world would rather move in the summer when their kids are in between qualities of school. You can additionally have multiple seasonal (or cyclical) effects. For example, human being tend to try and make positive behavioral alters on the "1st" of somepoint, so you see spikes in gym attendance of course on the 1st of the year, but likewise the initially of each month and each week, so gym attendance has yearly, monthly, and weekly seasonality. When you are trying to find a 2nd seasonal pattern or a cyclical pattern in seasonal information, it deserve to assist to take a relocating average at the better seasonal frequency to rerelocate those seasonal effects. For circumstances, if you take a relocating average of the housing information with a window dimension of 12 you will see the cyclical pattern even more clearly. This just works though to rerelocate a higher frequency pattern from a reduced frequency one.

Also, for the document, seasonal behavior does not need to take place only on sub-year time devices. For example, the sunlight goes with what are dubbed "solar cycles" which are durations of time where it puts out more or less warm. This behavior reflects a seasonality of virtually exactly 11 years, so a yat an early stage time series of the warm put out by the sun would have actually a seasonality of 11.

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In many type of instances the distinction in seasonal vs cyclical habits deserve to be known or measured via reasonable accuracy by looking at the regularity of the peaks in your data and also looking for a drift the timing peaks from the intend distance in between them. A series via solid seasonality will certainly show clear peaks in the partial auto-correlation feature as well as the auto-correlation function, whereas a cyclical series will certainly just have the strong peaks in the auto-correlation function. However before if you do not have actually enough data to recognize this or if the data is extremely noisy making the dimensions difficult, the ideal means to identify if a behavior is cyclical or seasonal can be by thinking around the reason of the fluctuation in the data. If the reason is dependent straight on time then the information are likely seasonal (ex. it takes ~365.25 days for the earth to take a trip approximately the sunlight, the place of the earth around the sunlight impacts temperature, therefore temperature shows a ybeforehand seasonal pattern). If on the other hand, the reason is based upon previous values of the series rather than straight on time, the series is likely cyclical (ex. as soon as the worth of stocks go up, it gives confidence in the industry, so even more people invest making prices go up, and vice versa, therefore stocks present a cyclical pattern).